What is economic indicator showing us into the 4th quarter and beyond?
I believe everyone of us is seething for our luck during this recession. No one is spare for this crisis. Couple with biological hazard in place, COVID-19. This pandemic seems too hard to go by as long as vaccine is yet in place.
Leading and lagging indicator
Well, based on Ikhwan Consulting Group, they have done some analysis for future and current economic condition. As for future outlook, it seems that most of the major indexes have shown a very good sign. Accumulation phase.
Accumulation Phase
As you may see from stock market life cylce accumulation phase at above it is obviouly where sideways stock price motion and is seen by many investors or technical analysts as indicating a potential buying opportunity. It may signal that large institutional investors are buying, or accumulating, a large number of shares over time [1]
As you can see on the table mapped out above, its shows that all of major stock indexes are in accumulation phase. This phase whereby it is ready to skyrocket to mark up phase. The future is bright for coming month globally. Lets pray that it will stays this way as we move forward.
Purchasing Manager’s Index mixed situation
However, when you are looking into Purchasing Manager’s Index it shows otherwise compared to leading indicator. As we well aware, PMI is a lagging indicator. It shows known event, but that doesn’t make them useless. They can clarify and confirm a pattern that is occurring over time [2]
Therefore, based on IHCG analysis it can be categorised by region. For ASEAN the index is mostly contracting except for Indonesia albeit of their increasing COVID-19 cases. Meanwhile for Asia, only Japan’s index were showing contracting activity. As most of its peers were expanding. In western country particularly USA, it is expanding. Same goes to European contries.
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